Balqiis Insights has published a new edition of its Policy Snapshots series, examining the growing uncertainty surrounding AUSSOM and the challenges facing Somalia’s security transition.

The analysis follows Uganda’s announcement that its troops have begun withdrawing from Somalia and the formal closure of the United Nations Transitional Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNTMIS) on 31 October 2026.

Drawing on our July 2026 policy paper, No Time to Drift: Somalia and the Deadline for a Managed Security Transition, the publication revisits the risks of a premature security handover without adequate operational readiness, financing and logistical support.

It also examines how political disagreements between the Federal Government and Federal Member States, alongside changing security conditions in South West State, Hiiraan and Lower Shabelle, could complicate security coordination and create further vulnerabilities.

Balqiis Insights calls for a negotiated political settlement and a coordinated, time-bound security transition supported by clear financing arrangements, operational benchmarks and stronger federal-state cooperation.

Download the full Policy Snapshots publication below